US-Ukraine Minerals Deal: What We Know

In this handout photograph posted on the official Facebook account of Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko late on April 30, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (L) and Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko (R) sign a minerals deal in Washington DC, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  (AFP photo / Facebook account of Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko)
In this handout photograph posted on the official Facebook account of Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko late on April 30, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (L) and Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko (R) sign a minerals deal in Washington DC, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (AFP photo / Facebook account of Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko)
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US-Ukraine Minerals Deal: What We Know

In this handout photograph posted on the official Facebook account of Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko late on April 30, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (L) and Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko (R) sign a minerals deal in Washington DC, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  (AFP photo / Facebook account of Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko)
In this handout photograph posted on the official Facebook account of Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko late on April 30, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (L) and Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko (R) sign a minerals deal in Washington DC, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (AFP photo / Facebook account of Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko)

Washington and Kyiv have signed a new minerals deal that will see the United States invest in Ukraine's rare earth and other deposits as it seeks to reduce military aid to the war-torn country.

The deal came together after US President Donald Trump demanded compensation for US aid given to Ukraine under his predecessor Joe Biden's administration, and follows weeks of delays following a spat in late February between Trump and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.

Here's what we know about the agreement -- which lacks any explicit security guarantees for Ukraine:

- What's in the deal? -

Under the terms of the deal announced on Wednesday, Ukraine and the United States will establish a joint Reconstruction Investment Fund.

The fund will be controlled by a company with "equal representation of three Ukrainian and three American board members," the US Treasury Department said in a statement.

The agreement covers 57 types of resources, including oil and gas.

If the United States decides to buy the resources, they will be given "first choice to either acquire them or designate the purchaser of our choice," the Treasury Department said.

The new fund "will receive 50 percent of royalties, license fees, and other similar payments from natural resource projects in Ukraine," according to the US Treasury.

Its profits will be invested exclusively in Ukraine for the first 10 years, after which profits "may be distributed between the partners," Kyiv said.

- What resources does Ukraine have? -

Ukraine holds about five percent of the world's mineral resources and rare earths, according to various estimates.

But work has not yet started on tapping many of the resources and a number of sites are in territory now controlled by Russian forces.

Ukraine also has around 20 percent of the world's graphite, an essential material for electric batteries, according to France's Bureau of Geological and Mining Research, and is a major producer of manganese and titanium.

It also says it possesses one of the largest lithium deposits in Europe, which is yet to be extracted.

Kyiv says "rare earth metals are known to exist in six deposits" and an investment of $300 million would be needed to develop a deposit at Novopoltavske, which it claimed was one of the world's largest.

- Does Ukraine have to repay the US? -

Trump demanded compensation for US aid given to Ukraine under his predecessor Joe Biden's administration.

But under the terms of the deal signed this week, Ukraine will not be asked to pay back the billions of dollars it has received from the United States since Russia's invasion of the country in February 2022.

New military aid from Washington will be counted as its contribution to the fund, according to the text of the agreement.

Ukraine said it will maintain full control over its subsoil, infrastructure and natural resources throughout the process.

Kyiv noted that the agreement does not impact its bid for integration with the European Union.

- What does US support mean for Ukraine? -

Ukraine has said any deal would need to include long-term and robust security guarantees that would deter Russia from attacking again.

But the text does not place any specific security obligations on the United States.

It simply says that the United States "supports Ukraine's efforts to obtain the security assurances necessary to build a lasting peace."

However, a US Treasury statement notably mentioned Russia's "full-scale invasion" of Ukraine -- diverging from the Trump administration's usual formulation of a "conflict" for which Kyiv bears a large degree of responsibility.

"This is win-win for both sides," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business on Thursday.

"I think this is a strong signal to the Russian leadership," he said.



India and Pakistan Don’t Fight Wars Like Other Countries. Here’s Why 

This photograph taken on May 9, 2025 shows the Neelum River flowing through Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir. (AFP)
This photograph taken on May 9, 2025 shows the Neelum River flowing through Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir. (AFP)
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India and Pakistan Don’t Fight Wars Like Other Countries. Here’s Why 

This photograph taken on May 9, 2025 shows the Neelum River flowing through Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir. (AFP)
This photograph taken on May 9, 2025 shows the Neelum River flowing through Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir. (AFP)

India and Pakistan have fought three full-scale wars since they gained independence from Britain in 1947. They’ve also had dozens of skirmishes and conflicts, including one atop a glacier dubbed the coldest and highest-altitude battlefield in the world.

The latest escalation follows a deadly gun attack on tourists that India blames Pakistan for — Islamabad denies any connection. But they don’t fight wars like other countries.

The dominant factor is their nuclear weapons arsenal, a distinct way of deterring major attacks and a guarantee that fighting doesn’t get out of hand, even when the situation is spiraling.

Here’s how — and why — India and Pakistan fight the way they do:

Their nuclear arsenals can destroy each other “Pakistan and India have enough nuclear weapons to wipe the other side out several times over,” says security analyst Syed Mohammed Ali, who is based in Islamabad, the Pakistani capital. “Their nuclear weapons create a scenario for mutually assured destruction.”

Both countries have “deliberately developed” the size and range of their stockpile to remind the other about the guarantee of mutually assured destruction, he adds.

Neither country discloses their nuclear capabilities but each is thought to have between 170 and 180 warheads that are short-, long- and medium-range. Both countries have different delivery systems — ways of launching and propelling these weapons to their targets.

The arsenals are a defensive move to prevent and deter further fighting, because “neither side can afford to initiate such a war or hope to achieve anything from it,” Ali says.

It might not look this way to the outsider, but nuclear weapons are a reminder to the other side that they can't take things too far.

But the secrecy around their arsenals means that it's unclear if Pakistan or India can survive a first nuclear strike and retaliate, something called “second-strike capability.”

This capacity stops an opponent from attempting to win a nuclear war through a first strike by preventing aggression that could lead to nuclear escalation.

Without this capability, there is, in theory, nothing to stop one side from launching a warhead at the other.

Kashmir at the crux of the dispute India and Pakistan have each laid claim to Kashmir since 1947, when both gained independence, and border skirmishes have created instability in the region for decades. Each country controls a part of Kashmir, which is divided by a heavily militarized border.

The two archrivals have also fought two of their three wars over Kashmir — a disputed Himalayan region divided between the them where armed insurgents resist Indian rule. Many Muslim Kashmiris support the rebels’ goal of uniting the territory, either under Pakistani rule or as an independent country.

Border flare-ups and militant attacks in India-controlled Kashmir have prompted New Delhi to take an increasingly tough position on Islamabad, accusing it of “terrorism.”

In the latest conflict, India punished Pakistan by hitting what it said were sites used by Pakistan-backed militants linked to a gun massacre last month.

A conventional military imbalance India is one of the biggest defense spenders in the world, with $74.4 billion in 2025, according to the Military Balance report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. It’s also one of the world’s largest arms importers.

Pakistan is no slouch, spending $10 billion last year, but it can never match India’s deep pockets. India also has more than double the number of active armed forces personnel than Pakistan does.

While India’s armed forces are traditionally focused on Pakistan, it has another nuclear neighbor to contend with, China, and it is increasingly concerned with maritime security in the Indian Ocean. Those are two factors that Pakistan doesn’t have to consider in its security paradigm.

Pakistan's long and narrow shape, together with the outsized role of the military in foreign policy, makes it easier to move the armed forces around and prioritize defense.

A pattern of escalation and defusing Neither Pakistan or India are in a hurry to announce their military moves against the other and, as seen in the current flare-up of hostilities, it can take a while for confirmation of strikes and retaliation to surface.

But both launch operations into territories and airspace controlled by the other. Sometimes these are intended to damage checkpoints, installations, or sites allegedly used by militants.

They are also aimed at embarrassing or provoking — forcing leaders to bow to public pressure and respond, with the potential for miscalculation.

Many of these activities originate along the Line of Control, which divides Kashmir between India and Pakistan. It's largely inaccessible to the media and public, making it hard to independently verify claims of an attack or retaliation.

Such incidents raise international alarm, because both countries have nuclear capabilities, forcing attention back to India and Pakistan and, eventually, their competing claims over Kashmir.

The fear of nuclear war has put the two countries at the top of the agenda, competing with the papal conclave, US President Donald Trump’s policies, and the Sean “Diddy” Combs trial in the news cycle.

No desire for conquest, influence or resources Pakistan and India’s battles and skirmishes are away from the public eye.

Strikes and retaliation are late at night or early in the morning and, with the exception of the drone attacks on Thursday, they mostly take place away from densely populated urban centers. It shows that neither country has the desire to significantly harm the other’s population. Attacks are either described as surgical or limited.

Neither country is motivated by competition for resources. Pakistan has huge mineral wealth, but India isn't interested in these and, while there are stark ideological differences between Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan, they don’t seek control or influence over the other.

Other than Kashmir, they have no interest in claiming the other’s territory or exercising dominance.

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