US Labor Market Slows Despite Job Adds in May

Commuters cross Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC, during the morning rush hour. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images)
Commuters cross Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC, during the morning rush hour. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images)
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US Labor Market Slows Despite Job Adds in May

Commuters cross Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC, during the morning rush hour. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images)
Commuters cross Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC, during the morning rush hour. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images)

The United States added 139,000 jobs in May, more than expected but pointing to a labor market that continues to slow.

The employment data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics exceeded forecasts for about 120,000 payroll gains but marked a decline from the revised 147,000 jobs added in April. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, remaining near historic lows.

Stocks surged at Friday's open, with all three major indexes gaining about 1%.

In return, US government borrowing costs climbed as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for longer, making it less attractive to hold US debt.

The BLS report showed job losses in the federal government continued to pile up, with that sector shedding 22,000 roles in May alone.

The federal workforce is down by 59,000 since January, largely due to sweeping cuts by the Trump administration and multibillionaire tech executive Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency project.

Even as the economy continued to add jobs at a relatively steady clip last month, the report showed other signs of a weakening labor market.

The ratio of employed workers to the total population fell to 59.7%, its lowest since the pandemic.

An alternative measure of unemployment that includes “discouraged” workers, or those who have stopped looking for work, returned to a post-pandemic high of 4.5%.

But President Donald Trump cheered the numbers, posting on his Truth Social platform Friday morning: “AMERICA IS HOT! SIX MONTHS AGO IT WAS COLD AS ICE! BORDER IS CLOSED, PRICES ARE DOWN. WAGES ARE UP!”

Trump had urged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to slash interest rates by a full percentage point.

“Too Late' at the Fed is a disaster!” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

In reality, employers added 212,000 jobs in November, unemployment was at 4.1%, the 12-month average of hourly pay gains have softened from nearly 4.2% then to 3.9% in May, and both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio were slightly higher.

Only consumer prices have meaningfully cooled, ticking down from an annual inflation rate of 2.7% in November to 2.3% in April, the latest month with available data.

Analysts at Capital Economics called the May jobs report “not as good as it looks.”

Still, they wrote in a note Friday, “it shows that tariffs are having little negative impact” and added that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue holding interest rates steady “while it assesses the effects of policy changes on the economy.”



Oil Prices Rise as Israel-Iran Conflict Enters Seventh Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Prices Rise as Israel-Iran Conflict Enters Seventh Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices rose on Thursday after Israel and Iran continued to exchange missile attacks overnight and US President Donald Trump's stance on the conflict kept investors on edge.

Brent crude futures rose 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $77.06 a barrel by 0913 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude for July was up 54 cents, or 0.7%, at $75.68. Brent had surged to its highest in nearly five months at $78.50 on June 13, when Israel began its attacks. The conflict entered its seventh day on Thursday after Israel struck a key Iranian nuclear site and Iranian missiles hit an Israeli hospital, Reuters said.

There is still a "healthy risk premium baked into the price as traders wait to see whether the next stage of the Israel-Iran conflict is a US strike or peace talks", said Tony Sycamore, analyst at trading platform IG.

Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday that a geopolitical risk premium of about $10 a barrel is justified, given lower Iranian supply and risk of wider disruption that could push Brent crude above $90.

President Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he had yet to decide whether the US will join Israel in its attacks on Iran.

As a result of the unpredictability that has long characterized Trump's foreign policy, "markets remain jittery, awaiting firmer signals that could influence global oil supply and regional stability" said Priyanka Sachdeva, analyst at Phillip Nova.

The risk of major energy disruption will rise if Iran feels existentially threatened, and US entry into the conflict could trigger direct attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure, said RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft.

Iran is the third-largest producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, extracting about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil.

About 18 million to 21 million bpd of oil and oil products move through the Strait of Hormuz along Iran's southern coast and there is widespread concern the fighting could disrupt trade flows.

Separately, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on Wednesday but penciled in two cuts by the end of the year. Lower interest rates could stimulate the economy, helping to support demand for oil. On the supply side, US crude stockpiles fell sharply last week, registering the largest decline in a year, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

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