Oil Climbs $1 as Price Drop Triggers Buying; Oversupply Worries Weigh

FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
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Oil Climbs $1 as Price Drop Triggers Buying; Oversupply Worries Weigh

FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo

Oil gained more than $1 per barrel on Tuesday, rebounding on technical factors and bargain hunting after a decision by OPEC+ to boost output sent prices down the previous session, although concerns about the market surplus outlook persisted.

Brent crude futures rose $1.15 to $61.38 a barrel by 0623 GMT, the first time gain after six consecutive declines, while US West Texas Intermediate crude added $1.11 to $58.24 a barrel.

Both benchmarks had settled at their lowest since February 2021 on Monday, driven by an OPEC+ decision over the weekend to further speed up oil production hikes for a second consecutive month.

"Today’s slight rebound in oil prices appears more technical than fundamental," said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG. "Persistent headwinds including a pivotal shift in OPEC+ production strategy, uncertain demand amid US tariff risks, and price forecast downgrades are continuing to weigh on the broader price movement."

Driven by expectations that production will exceed consumption, oil has lost over 10% in six straight sessions and dipped over 20% since April when US President Donald Trump's tariff shocks prompted increased bets on a slowdown in the global economy.

The return of Chinese market participants after a five-day public holiday since May 1 was seen supporting prices on Tuesday.

"China also reopened today, and being the largest importer, buyers would have likely jumped to secure oil at current low levels," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

Also lending some support was data showing a pick-up in services sector's growth in the US, the world's major oil consumer, as orders increased.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 51.6 last month from 50.8 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI dipping to 50.2.

The US Federal Reserve will likely leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as tariffs roil the economic outlook.

Barclays lowered its Brent crude forecast on Monday by $4 to $70 a barrel for 2025 and set its 2026 estimate at $62 a barrel, citing "a rocky road ahead for fundamentals" amid escalating trade tensions and OPEC+'s pivot in its production strategy.

Goldman Sachs also lowered its oil price forecast on Monday by $2-3 per barrel, as they now expect another 400,000 barrels per day production increase by OPEC+ in July.



Saudi Business and Job Growth Hit 14-Year High

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (AFP)
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (AFP)
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Saudi Business and Job Growth Hit 14-Year High

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (AFP)
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (AFP)

Business conditions in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector improved notably in June, driven by a marked rise in customer demand and expanded production, according to the latest Riyad Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data.

New business volumes surged, fueling the fastest pace of employment growth since May 2011. This strong demand for workers pushed wage costs to record highs, adding pressure on overall expenses and contributing to a fresh increase in output prices.

The headline PMI climbed to 57.2 in June from 55.8 in May - its highest level in three months and slightly above the long-term average of 56.9. The reading signaled a robust improvement in the health of the non-oil private sector economy.

Companies reported another rise in new orders last month, with growth accelerating following a recent low in April. Many firms cited gaining new clients, alongside improved marketing efforts and stronger demand conditions. Domestic sales were the main driver of the increase, while export sales edged up slightly.

Purchasing Activity Expands

Production continued to expand through the end of Q2, although growth slowed to a 10-month low. Purchasing activity picked up sharply as companies sought to secure additional inputs to meet rising demand, with the pace of purchase growth reaching its fastest in two years.

Employment growth accelerated as businesses rapidly expanded their workforce to keep pace with incoming orders, pushing hiring to the highest level since mid-2011. This strong recruitment trend, which began early in 2025, was largely driven by a rising need for skilled workers, prompting companies to increase salary offers. Consequently, overall wage costs rose at the fastest rate since the PMI survey started in 2009.

Facing mounting cost pressures from higher raw material prices, firms raised their selling prices sharply in June , the biggest increase since late 2023, reversing declines recorded in two of the previous three months. This price hike largely reflected the passing of higher operating costs onto customers, although some companies opted for competitive pricing strategies by cutting prices.

Resilient Economic Outlook

Looking ahead, non-oil private sector firms remained confident about business activity over the next 12 months. Optimism hit a two-year high, supported by resilient domestic economic conditions, strong demand, and improved sales. Supply-side conditions also showed positive momentum, with another strong improvement in supplier performance.

Dr. Naif Alghaith, Chief Economist at Riyad Bank, said: “Future expectations among non-oil companies remain very positive. Business confidence reached its highest level in two years, underpinned by strong order inflows and improving local economic conditions.”

He added: “However, cost pressures became more pronounced in June, with wage growth hitting record levels as companies compete to retain talent. Purchasing prices also rose at the fastest pace since February, partly driven by increased demand and geopolitical risks. Despite these challenges, companies broadly raised selling prices to recover from May’s declines, reflecting an improved ability to pass higher costs onto customers.”

 

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